It’s official: with a victory over the Rockies on Wednesday night, the Pirates have sealed their third consecutive playoff berth. Yes, it’s the third year in a row that the Bucs have clinched on September 23rd. Turning into the best day of the year.
Further, it’s now the third time that the Pirates have appeared in the postseason three years in a row:
(The playoff format expanded to two rounds in 1969… Three rounds in 1994… And expanded Wild Card in 2012.)
In 2013, the feeling was pure joy; finally, the playoffs were back in Pittsburgh. Last year, it was almost relief; the Pirates hovered around .500 for more of the season than we would have liked (they were only three games over on September 3rd), but a late run proved that the previous season wasn’t exactly a fluke. This team had what it took to be among the league’s best.
This season, though, the feeling is a little different. They expected to be here. They’re not celebrating as much yet, at least not publicly all-out. Chasing the Cardinals all year has, once again, been unsatisfying, and the thought of another do-or-die Wild Card game is not exactly flattering. This team, despite having the second best record in all of Major League Baseball, has spent exactly zero days in first place. That’s just too bad: they could finish with or near triple-digit wins to be the best Bucco club since at least the early 1990s.
Still, many teams would love to be in the Bucs’ position right now. It’s an awesome accomplishment. Regardless of what happens next month, this has been another great year for the team. Let’s take a look at how they got here.
A Year-In, Year-Out MVP
Andrew McCutchen won’t take the NL MVP Award this season, but for as long as he is in Pittsburgh, it cannot be understated how much he means to this baseball club. Don’t forget how the season started for Cutch: he looked pretty clueless at the plate (basically for the first time ever), and there were questions about whether or not he was healthy. Entering May 7th, he was slashing an awful .188/.279/.292, which inspired this post on his struggles. Turns out, there was no reason to worry, and he turned it around right then and there — since May 7th, Cutch is batting a ridiculous .320/.430/.545. The Pirates turned it around then, too — after a 12-14 start, they’ve managed to win 80 of their last 121 contests.
Even including an incredibly slow start, McCutchen’s been one of the best in the game. He’s pulled his numbers up to his typical neighborhood of around .300/.400/.500. If he can take his batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage over those marks for good in the final week-plus of the regular season, he’ll be the first center fielder since a guy named Mickey Mantle to put up those numbers four years in a row:
.@TheCUTCH22 can become 1st CF since Mickey Mantle with 4-straight years of a .300/.400/.500 slash line. pic.twitter.com/sfqQw8pvBn
— MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) August 10, 2015
An Ace (and a great supporting cast)
Is it safe to say Gerrit Cole finally made his big step forward this season? He teetered between good and great in his first two campaigns, but this year has been legit: 17-8, 2.64 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 8.91 K/9, 1.95 K/9, 48% groundball rate, and most importantly, full health (knock on wood). He’ll rightfully be lined up for the Wild Card game (or the first postseason game, if that’s how you prefer to look at it).
As we speak, his 2.64 ERA ranks fourth among National League qualified starters — in other words, behind the three most dominant pitchers in baseball this season, Zack Greinke (1.65), Jake Arrieta (1.88), and Clayton Kershaw (2.18). And Cole’s identical 2.64 FIP is third behind Kershaw (2.09) and Arrieta (2.44).
It’s not all Cole, however. Francisco Liriano is giving the Pirates what they hoped for when re-signing him for three years in December. A.J. Burnett, pre-injury, gave them way more than they could have expected. What a way to go out for Batman, making his first All-Star appearance in his final season.
Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke, frustrating as they can be, have held down the fort. Somehow, someway, J.A. Happ has been downright good since being picked up at the deadline.
All told, the Pirates’ starting staff ranks fourth in MLB in ERA (3.51) and first in FIP (3.34). Well done.
A Rookie
Rather than getting worked up about his season-ending injury, we’ll direct you to our post last week on how good Jung-Ho Kang’s rookie season was. If he didn’t get hurt and if Kris Bryant didn’t exist, he’d be a great NL Rookie of the Year candidate (maybe he still is).
The biggest believers in Jung-Ho foresaw this kind of potential, but many had to be surprised at what he gave the Pirates this year. He got better as the summer wore on — .314/.376/.547 in his final 60 games, coinciding with Josh Harrison‘s injury. Jordy Mercer also went down two weeks later, and Kang played wonderfully at SS and 3B down the stretch.
While he unfortunately won’t be there the rest of the way, Kang arguably provided the team’s second best bat this season; unarguably, he played a key role in getting the Pirates to where they are right now.
A New Backstop
Russell Martin was a headliner of this list last season, and it was obviously difficult to see him leave via free agency last November.
Fortunately, the Pirates really couldn’t have done much better in replacing him. Francisco Cervelli finally got his chance, finally stayed healthy, and finally showed that he could be a legitimate starting catcher. His offense has been superb, with an on-base percentage north of .375, making him one of the most valuable catchers in baseball.
Not only has Cervelli been easy to root for, he’s filled Russ’ void just fine.
A Shutdown Bullpen (aka The Melancon and Watson Show)
Good teams have good bullpens (generally), and the Pirates are no exception. For the past few years, it’s been quite fun to watch Tony Watson and Mark Melancon go to work in the late innings.
This year, the Pirates are 75-1 when leading after seven innings. Even though that stat includes scenarios where those two weren’t involved, it surely includes many where they were. Any close game involves those two shutting it down. Melancon has already taken the team’s single season record for saves.
Like the rotation, though, it’s a group effort: the ‘pen as a whole has worked to a Major League-best 2.64 ERA. While not nearly as consistent as Watson or Melancon, Jared Hughes, Arquimedes Caminero, and Antonio Bastardo have been there in middle relief all season long.
A Plan
Credit the manager. No matter how much people complain about Clint Hurdle‘s lineups or how often a loss gets pinned on him, he could be doing much worse.
Credit the front office. As long as they’re putting a successful product on the field, it’s tough to question too much of what they’re doing. From top to bottom, there is a clear plan in place; they’ve done a heck of a job of implementing it and converting that into wins.
So, where do we go from here?
Ten important ballgames remain in the regular season:
Thurs. 9/24 @ Rockies
Fri. 9/25 @ Cubs
Sat. 9/26 @ Cubs
Sun. 9/27 @ Cubs
Mon. 9/28 vs. Cardinals
Tues. 9/29 vs. Cardinals
Wed. 9/30 vs. Cardinals
Fri. 10/2 vs. Reds
Sat. 10/3 vs. Reds
Sun. 10/4 vs. Reds
As has been the case all season, the division is the Cardinals’ to lose. And they’re not letting go. The upcoming weekend set with the Cubbies should be particularly important in determining the location of the likely NL Wild Card game on October 7th.
All we can do now is let it unfold. The first step is securing a playoff spot, and the Pirates have done just that. Even if they only have a date for one night in October, that’s all they need for now. There’s a sense of unfinished business among the Bucs. Let’s go one game, one day at a time.
Congrats, Pirates.
“My s-t doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f—–g luck.” – Billy Beane
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