*Apologies for the lack of content as of late — I have recently started an internship at Baseball Info Solutions. Coverage here may be slow this summer, but we’ll try to update the site and our Twitter as much as possible.
If you paid any kind of attention to the Pirates-Mets series this weekend, you’ll know the team from Pittsburgh is in very good hands with the powerful arms at the top of their rotation. Yes, New York’s offense has struggled and featured a depleted lineup by Sunday, but the tone was set by Gerrit Cole on Friday, A.J. Burnett on Saturday, and Francisco Liriano on Sunday:
Cole/AJ/Liriano this weekend: 21.1 innings, 2 earned runs (0.84 ERA), 32 K, 3 BB, .227 batting average against. Unreal job.
— Forbes to Federal (@ForbesToFederal) May 24, 2015
Cole has exhibited his ace potential all season to this point. Burnett has been better in his return to the Steel City than anyone could have possibly expected. Liriano shook off a couple of difficult starts, while still showing off some of the impressive peripheral numbers that made him successful in 2013 and 2014.
All told, this has been one of the best starting pitching trios in Major League Baseball through the first seven weeks of the season.
Let’s take a look…
Overall
Only three rotations in baseball feature three starters with a higher collective WAR than the Pirates. These numbers come by way of FanGraphs, which calculates WAR based on Fielding Independent Pitching.
The three clubs ahead of them should be no huge surprises. Though Doug Fister is currently DL’d, Washington features the best starting five by far. Cleveland’s young staff — between Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Danny Salazar — is both impressive and dominant, but hasn’t seen great results due to atrocious defense behind them. And we’ll be seeing a lot of Chicago’s rotation down the road.
We’ll use these top 3 WAR trios for a few more calculations…
Run Prevention
*Excluded Orioles due to third-highest WAR starter having only 14 innings pitched.
Even for a mere seven-week sample size, no one could have predicted that the 38-year-old Burnett would lead Major League Baseball with a 1.37 ERA. Gerrit Cole hasn’t been so bad either, posting a 2.05 ERA in his first nine starts, good for 6th in the National League. Liriano lowered his ERA to 3.86 on Sunday, though you can easily see a scenario where that continues to drop when he gets his home run rate under control. Liriano’s xFIP — which assumes a league-average HR to fly ball ratio — sits at a cool 3.04.
All together, the three have allowed 45 runs in 169.1 innings — a 2.39 earned run average. No other top 3 WAR trio comes close.
Punchouts
Only two National League starters — James Shields (31.5%) and Clayton Kershaw (30%) — have struck out a higher percentage of their opponents than Francisco Liriano (29%). Then there’s Max Scherzer (28.5%)… And then Gerrit Cole at fifth (27.6%). Impressive stuff.
It seems, at times, that A.J.’s experience has taught him to not always go for the strikeout like he’s done so much in the past. Still, his K% ranks 16th in the NL and he struck out a whopping 10 on Saturday (while walking none).
Worm Killers
*Excluded Rockies due to third-highest WAR starter having only 11 innings pitched.
The Pirates have emphasized the importance of getting ground balls from their pitchers, with Burnett and Liriano being two pitchers they acquired to exploit their heavy sinkers. The three teams ahead of them feature the league’s top three ground ball pitchers: the Astros’ Dallas Keuchel, the Padres’ Tyson Ross, and the Dodgers’ Brett Anderson.
Burnett and Cole have matching 54.8% GB rates, tied for 10th best in MLB. Liriano’s mark has slipped to 46.9% (still above average) after topping 50% each of the past two seasons.
Nice to have one of these guys going every fifth day, isn’t it? Each will likely regress a bit soon enough — Cole and especially Burnett might throw a little worse, Liriano maybe a little better. As fun as it may sound, Burnett simply won’t maintain a 1.37 ERA, and even Cole’s 2.05 is a bit ambitious. But their peripherals do back up their performances to a degree, and there’s reason to believe they can keep stringing together solid starts.
An injury to any of these three would be devastating, but not much of a surprise. Burnett logged 213.2 innings last season and is on pace for even more this season, so you have to hope his aging arm doesn’t wear down in the dog days of summer. Cole’s shoulder problems last season were particularly concerning, and with Liriano, it’s usually a question of when, not if, he’ll get injured.
If they can stay healthy? Look out. The pitching staff as a whole has been one of the best in baseball, with the #2 ERA (3.11) and #2 FIP (3.31). Charlie Morton returns on Monday, which should only help (with the corresponding move likely to impact the bullpen). The club is still one game under .500, but has scored 26 more runs than they’ve allowed to date. Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison have finally found some hits. If the offense gets hot at once and the pitching keeps rolling, they’ll be in good shape.
Go Bucs
The post Baseball’s Best Starting Pitching Trios appeared first on From Forbes to Federal.
