Strengths & Weaknesses Within the NL Central

After a long, cold winter, we’re getting awfully close to Opening Day 2015. The National League Central looks to be one of the more competitive divisions in baseball this season — all five teams could hang around for a while, and at least three might be vying for a postseason spot come September.

This division has a lot of intriguing players who will put their respective teams in a position to compete. FanGraphs did a rundown of their positional rankings last week, ranking how all 30 teams stack up position-by-position based on wins above replacement projections. Team WAR totals by position can be found HERE. While there isn’t a perfect correlation, their WAR projections are typically a strong indicator of success, as Jeff Sullivan wrote in December.

Using FG’s depth charts/team WAR totals, I broke each position on each team into percentiles (based on all of MLB) and displayed the NL Central on some radar charts below. Each position includes bench playing time — for example, the Pirates’ projected wins above replacement at second base isn’t just Neil Walker; it’s Walker (2.9 WAR in 525 PA), Jung-Ho Kang (0.4 WAR in 140 PA), and Sean Rodriguez (0.1 WAR in 21 PA).

Let’s take a look, starting with our Bucs…

Andrew McCutchen is really good — only Mike Trout‘s Angels are in better standing in center. Starling Marte and Neil Walker are pretty good, too. MLB Network ranked 22, 6, and 18 within the top 4 at their respective positions for good reason. The rotation and bullpen look to take on the “good, not great” mantra again. Projections aren’t high on Jordy Mercer or Gregory Polanco, but the glaring holes are at catcher and first base. Francisco Cervelli will see the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate (when healthy), and you at least hope he can be somewhat of a sleeper/dark horse to surprise some people this year. Pedro Alvarez has a lot to prove over at first base, especially compared to the rest of MLB’s 1Bmen. He seems to be the team’s wild card year in and year out… if El Toro has a big year, the Pirates could make some noise.

The Cardinals have more area covered than any team you’ll see on this page. They return a ton of the same core that took them to the playoffs for the fifth time in six years, while also adding Jason Heyward in right field — a guy who gets a lot of WAR credit for his excellent defense. They got Jordan Walden in the same trade with Atlanta, a hard-thrower will complement Trevor Rosenthal and others in the bullpen. Yadier Molina (C), Matt Holliday (LF), and Jhonny Peralta (SS) are getting older but still rank among the best at their respective positions. Second base is pretty thin around MLB, so Kolten Wong gets a good bit of credit here. Their only real weakness is at first base, where Matt Adams is still pretty serviceable (they also brought in Mark Reynolds to face LHP). The Cards are still all-around solid.

The Cubs are getting a ton of offseason love… Signing Jon Lester (and Jason Hammel) was huge for their rotation, as was the 2014 emergence of both Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks. The young bats could do serious damage very soon: Anthony Rizzo is one of the best first basemen in the game; Jorge Soler gets his first full season in right field; Kris Bryant projects to be among the game’s best third basemen as soon as he steps onto a Major League field at some point in 2015. They also added center fielder Dexter Fowler and catcher Miguel Montero via trade — not among the best at their positions, but solid 2-win type players. Will Joe Maddon and the Cubs live up to the hype we’re hearing?

The Brewers spent 150 days in first place last season, only to experience a massive collapse and miss the playoffs entirely. They still have some star players, especially Jonathan Lucroy at catcher and Carlos Gomez in center. Ryan Braun will try to bounce back, while Aramis Ramirez will play his final season in the bigs. They got absolutely no production from first base last season, so bringing in Adam Lind will certainly help. The young middle infield of Jean Segura and Scooter Gennett has to prove itself. Their pitching doesn’t look so good, especially not in hitter-friendly Miller Park.

The bullpen probably isn’t accurately represented here: Aroldis Chapman single-handedly gives them a “great” bullpen from a projection standpoint. But how much stock do you put in one arm? He’s the biggest weapon in baseball… when the Reds are winning in the ninth inning. Beyond Chapman, the rest of the relief corps doesn’t look too good. There are some solid players here: Joey Votto could still be one of the best, most-disciplined hitters in the game if he’s healthy; Brandon Phillips, even in decline, is still alright at a weak position; Todd Frazier (3B) and Devin Mesoraco (C) were really good in ’14. But Jay Bruce went from a 4-win player in ’13 to below replacement level last season, Billy Hamilton needs to prove himself, and old friend/new Red Marlon Byrd is getting up there in age. The rotation doesn’t look like much beyond Johnny Cueto, who enters a contract year.